The Open Atmospheric
Detection of Tornado Frequency Trend Over Ontario, Canada
Zuohao Cao and Huaqing Cai Pp 27-31
An upward trend in Ontario tornado frequency (about 1.6 tornadoes/decade
with the statistically significant level at least at 95%) is identified
using three independent approaches. The first method is the conventional
linear regression method that had no disturbance to the original
tornado time series. The second approach is to employ the Mann-Kendall
test with consideration of removing a lag one autoregressive process.
The trend is further firmed up using the Monte Carlo simulation.
The robustness of the detected tornado frequency trend presented
in this work offers an example for tornado frequency trend analysis
over other regions of the world. It is shown in this study that
the Ontario tornado frequency is linked to ENSO (El Niño/Southern
Oscillation) signals with a statistically significant level at 99%.