The Open Transportation Journal




ISSN: 1874-4478 ― Volume 13, 2019
CASE REPORT

Bus Passenger Demand Modelling Using Time-Series Techniques- Big Data Analytics



Anila Cyril*, Raviraj H. Mulangi, Varghese George
Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore-575025, Karnataka, India

Abstract

Background:

Public transport demand forecasting is the fundamental process of transport planning activity. It plays a pivotal role in the decision making, policy formulations and urban transport planning procedures. In this paper, public bus passenger demand forecasting model is developed using a novel approach. The empirical passenger demand for a bus depot is modelled and forecasted using a data-driven method. The big data generated by Electronic Ticketing Machines (ETM) used for issuing tickets and collecting fares is sourced as the data for demand modelling. This big data is time indexed and hence has the potential for use in time-series applications which were not previously explored.

Objectives:

This paper studies the application of time-series method for forecasting public bus passenger demand using ETM based time-series data. The time-series approach used is the four Holt-Winters’ modeling methods. Holt-Winters’ additive and multiplicative models with and without damping have been empirically compared in this study using the data from the inter-zonal buses. The data used in the study is a part of the transaction on ticket sales by Kerala State Road Transport Corporation (KSRTC) maintained at the Trivandrum City depot of an Indian state Kerala, for the period between 2010 and 2013. The forecasting performance of four time-series models is compared using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the model goodness of fit is determined using information criteria.

Conclusion:

The forecasts indicate that multiplicative models with and without damping, which better account for seasonal variations, outperform the additive models.

Keywords: Big data, Time-series, Passenger demand modelling, Bus transport, Holt-Winters’, MAPE.


Article Information


Identifiers and Pagination:

Year: 2019
Volume: 13
First Page: 41
Last Page: 47
Publisher Id: TOTJ-13-41
DOI: 10.2174/1874447801913010041

Article History:

Received Date: 31/01/2019
Revision Received Date: 09/04/2019
Acceptance Date: 24/04/2019
Electronic publication date: 31/05/2019
Collection year: 2019

Article Metrics:

CrossRef Citations:
0

Total Statistics:

Full-Text HTML Views: 634
Abstract HTML Views: 387
PDF Downloads: 199
ePub Downloads: 162
Total Views/Downloads: 1382

Unique Statistics:

Full-Text HTML Views: 398
Abstract HTML Views: 215
PDF Downloads: 133
ePub Downloads: 96
Total Views/Downloads: 842
Geographical View

© 2019 Cyril et al.

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode). This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.


* Address correspondence to this author at the Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore-575025, Karnataka, India; Tel: +919400220928; E-mail: cv15f02@nitk.edu.in


Endorsements



"Open access will revolutionize 21st century knowledge work and accelerate the diffusion of ideas and evidence that support just in time learning and the evolution of thinking in a number of disciplines."


Daniel Pesut
(Indiana University School of Nursing, USA)

"It is important that students and researchers from all over the world can have easy access to relevant, high-standard and timely scientific information. This is exactly what Open Access Journals provide and this is the reason why I support this endeavor."


Jacques Descotes
(Centre Antipoison-Centre de Pharmacovigilance, France)

"Publishing research articles is the key for future scientific progress. Open Access publishing is therefore of utmost importance for wider dissemination of information, and will help serving the best interest of the scientific community."


Patrice Talaga
(UCB S.A., Belgium)

"Open access journals are a novel concept in the medical literature. They offer accessible information to a wide variety of individuals, including physicians, medical students, clinical investigators, and the general public. They are an outstanding source of medical and scientific information."


Jeffrey M. Weinberg
(St. Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital Center, USA)

"Open access journals are extremely useful for graduate students, investigators and all other interested persons to read important scientific articles and subscribe scientific journals. Indeed, the research articles span a wide range of area and of high quality. This is specially a must for researchers belonging to institutions with limited library facility and funding to subscribe scientific journals."


Debomoy K. Lahiri
(Indiana University School of Medicine, USA)

"Open access journals represent a major break-through in publishing. They provide easy access to the latest research on a wide variety of issues. Relevant and timely articles are made available in a fraction of the time taken by more conventional publishers. Articles are of uniformly high quality and written by the world's leading authorities."


Robert Looney
(Naval Postgraduate School, USA)

"Open access journals have transformed the way scientific data is published and disseminated: particularly, whilst ensuring a high quality standard and transparency in the editorial process, they have increased the access to the scientific literature by those researchers that have limited library support or that are working on small budgets."


Richard Reithinger
(Westat, USA)

"Not only do open access journals greatly improve the access to high quality information for scientists in the developing world, it also provides extra exposure for our papers."


J. Ferwerda
(University of Oxford, UK)

"Open Access 'Chemistry' Journals allow the dissemination of knowledge at your finger tips without paying for the scientific content."


Sean L. Kitson
(Almac Sciences, Northern Ireland)

"In principle, all scientific journals should have open access, as should be science itself. Open access journals are very helpful for students, researchers and the general public including people from institutions which do not have library or cannot afford to subscribe scientific journals. The articles are high standard and cover a wide area."


Hubert Wolterbeek
(Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands)

"The widest possible diffusion of information is critical for the advancement of science. In this perspective, open access journals are instrumental in fostering researches and achievements."


Alessandro Laviano
(Sapienza - University of Rome, Italy)

"Open access journals are very useful for all scientists as they can have quick information in the different fields of science."


Philippe Hernigou
(Paris University, France)

"There are many scientists who can not afford the rather expensive subscriptions to scientific journals. Open access journals offer a good alternative for free access to good quality scientific information."


Fidel Toldrá
(Instituto de Agroquimica y Tecnologia de Alimentos, Spain)

"Open access journals have become a fundamental tool for students, researchers, patients and the general public. Many people from institutions which do not have library or cannot afford to subscribe scientific journals benefit of them on a daily basis. The articles are among the best and cover most scientific areas."


M. Bendandi
(University Clinic of Navarre, Spain)

"These journals provide researchers with a platform for rapid, open access scientific communication. The articles are of high quality and broad scope."


Peter Chiba
(University of Vienna, Austria)

"Open access journals are probably one of the most important contributions to promote and diffuse science worldwide."


Jaime Sampaio
(University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Portugal)

"Open access journals make up a new and rather revolutionary way to scientific publication. This option opens several quite interesting possibilities to disseminate openly and freely new knowledge and even to facilitate interpersonal communication among scientists."


Eduardo A. Castro
(INIFTA, Argentina)

"Open access journals are freely available online throughout the world, for you to read, download, copy, distribute, and use. The articles published in the open access journals are high quality and cover a wide range of fields."


Kenji Hashimoto
(Chiba University, Japan)

"Open Access journals offer an innovative and efficient way of publication for academics and professionals in a wide range of disciplines. The papers published are of high quality after rigorous peer review and they are Indexed in: major international databases. I read Open Access journals to keep abreast of the recent development in my field of study."


Daniel Shek
(Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

"It is a modern trend for publishers to establish open access journals. Researchers, faculty members, and students will be greatly benefited by the new journals of Bentham Science Publishers Ltd. in this category."


Jih Ru Hwu
(National Central University, Taiwan)


Browse Contents



Webmaster Contact: info@benthamopen.net
Copyright © 2019 Bentham Open