1 Faculty of Health, Education and Society, University of Northampton, NN1 5PH, UK
We analysed mortality rates in a nonmetropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) using statistically-weighted data fitted to the start of the epidemic, to quantify SARS-CoV2 disease fatalities at sub 1,000,000 population levels. Using parameter estimates derived for the recorded mortality data, a numerical (SEIR) model was developed to predict the spread of Covid-19 sub regionally. Model outputs including analysis of transmission rates and the basic reproduction number, suggest national lockdown flattened the curve and reduced potential deaths by up to 4000 locally. The modelled number of infected and recovered individuals is higher than official estimates, and a revised form of the theoretical critical population fraction requiring immunisation is derived. Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease spread has the potential to help public health practitioners refine bespoke mitigation plans, guided by local population demographics.
Keywords: Covid-19, Mortality rates, Northamptonshire, SEIR models, Public health.
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