Table 3: Accuracy of the models of patient arrivals with a 1-hour forecasting interval.
Department |
Model |
MAE |
MAPE |
MASE |
In |
Out |
In |
Out |
In |
Out |
ED1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regression |
1.61 |
1.62 |
51 |
58 |
0.76 |
0.76 |
|
ARIMA (2,0,2)×(2,0,1)168
|
1.60 |
1.59 |
50 |
58 |
0.76 |
0.75 |
|
Naïve model |
2.12 |
2.19 |
69 |
76 |
1.00 |
1.03 |
ED2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regression |
1.81 |
1.75 |
48 |
47 |
0.75 |
0.73 |
|
ARIMA (2,0,4)×(1,0,1)168
|
1.77 |
1.72 |
47 |
49 |
0.74 |
0.72 |
|
Naïve model |
2.40 |
2.36 |
65 |
66 |
1.00 |
0.99 |
ED3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regression |
1.67 |
1.70 |
50 |
54 |
0.76 |
0.77 |
|
ARIMA (2,0,2)×(1,0,1)168
|
1.64 |
1.66 |
48 |
56 |
0.74 |
0.75 |
|
Naïve model |
2.21 |
2.22 |
68 |
75 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
ED4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regression |
1.83 |
1.82 |
48 |
48 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
|
ARIMA (3,0,3)×(1,0,1)168
|
1.79 |
1.82 |
47 |
51 |
0.73 |
0.75 |
|
Naïve model |
2.43 |
2.31 |
66 |
60 |
1.00 |
0.95 |
Note: MAE = Mean Absolute Error, MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error, MASE = Mean Absolute Scaled Error, In = in sample (i.e., calculated over the data used in building the model: January 2012 – December 2014), Out = out of sample (i.e., calculated over the forecasted data: January 2015).