Table 1: Predicted data for Italy, with the pure NlR model, with no containing measures implemented. Last observed figure is of March 13th.
| Day # |
Observed |
Predicted |
Error % |
Day/Day O |
Day/Day P |
| 8 |
650 |
648.7413 |
-0.19% |
- |
- |
| 9 |
888 |
878.8429 |
-1.03% |
1.366154 |
1.354689 |
| 10 |
1128 |
1167.422 |
3.49% |
1.27027 |
1.328363 |
| 11 |
1694 |
1525.264 |
-9.96% |
1.501773 |
1.306523 |
| 12 |
2036 |
1964.633 |
-3.51% |
1.201889 |
1.288061 |
| 13 |
2502 |
2499.426 |
-0.10% |
1.22888 |
1.27221 |
| 14 |
3089 |
3145.342 |
1.82% |
1.234612 |
1.258426 |
| 15 |
3858 |
3920.067 |
1.61% |
1.248948 |
1.246309 |
| 16 |
4636 |
4843.463 |
4.48% |
1.201659 |
1.235556 |
| 17 |
5883 |
5937.786 |
0.93% |
1.268982 |
1.225938 |
| 18 |
7375 |
7227.909 |
-1.99% |
1.253612 |
1.217274 |
| 19 |
9172 |
8741.575 |
-4.69% |
1.243661 |
1.20942 |
| 20 |
10149 |
10509.65 |
3.55% |
1.10652 |
1.202261 |
| 21 |
12462 |
12566.43 |
0.84% |
1.227904 |
1.195704 |
| 22 |
15113 |
14949.91 |
-1.08% |
1.212727 |
1.18967 |
| 23 |
17660 |
17702.14 |
0.24% |
1.16853 |
1.184097 |
| 24 |
- |
20869.59 |
- |
- |
1.17893 |
| 25 |
- |
24503.47 |
- |
- |
1.174123 |
| 26 |
- |
28660.2 |
- |
- |
1.169638 |
| 27 |
- |
33401.8 |
- |
- |
1.165442 |
| 28 |
- |
38796.35 |
- |
- |
1.161505 |
| 29 |
- |
44918.52 |
- |
- |
1.157803 |
| 30 |
- |
51850.07 |
- |
- |
1.154314 |
| 31 |
- |
59680.39 |
- |
- |
1.151019 |
| 32 |
- |
68507.15 |
- |
- |
1.147901 |
| 33 |
- |
78436.92 |
- |
- |
1.144945 |
| 34 |
- |
89585.81 |
- |
- |
1.142138 |
| 35 |
- |
102080.3 |
- |
- |
1.139469 |
| 36 |
- |
116057.8 |
- |
- |
1.136927 |
| 37 |
- |
131667.8 |
- |
- |
1.134502 |
| 38 |
- |
149072.4 |
- |
- |
1.132186 |
| 39 |
- |
168447.5 |
- |
- |
1.129971 |
| 40 |
- |
189983.6 |
- |
- |
1.127851 |