Table 2: Predicted data for Italy, by implementing effective containing measures over the NlR model. Last observed figure is of March 13th.
| Day # |
Observed |
Predicted |
Error % |
Day/Day O |
Day/Day P |
| 8 |
650 |
648.7413 |
-0.19% |
- |
- |
| 9 |
888 |
878.8429 |
-1.03% |
1.366154 |
1.354689 |
| 10 |
1128 |
1167.422 |
3.49% |
1.27027 |
1.328363 |
| 11 |
1694 |
1525.264 |
-9.96% |
1.501773 |
1.306523 |
| 12 |
2036 |
1964.633 |
-3.51% |
1.201889 |
1.288061 |
| 13 |
2502 |
2499.426 |
-0.10% |
1.22888 |
1.27221 |
| 14 |
3089 |
3145.342 |
1.82% |
1.234612 |
1.258426 |
| 15 |
3858 |
3920.067 |
1.61% |
1.248948 |
1.246309 |
| 16 |
4636 |
4843.463 |
4.48% |
1.201659 |
1.235556 |
| 17 |
5883 |
5937.786 |
0.93% |
1.268982 |
1.225938 |
| 18 |
7375 |
7227.909 |
-1.99% |
1.253612 |
1.217274 |
| 19 |
9172 |
8741.575 |
-4.69% |
1.243661 |
1.20942 |
| 20 |
10149 |
10509.65 |
3.55% |
1.10652 |
1.202261 |
| 21 |
12462 |
12566.43 |
0.84% |
1.227904 |
1.195704 |
| 22 |
15113 |
14949.91 |
-1.08% |
1.212727 |
1.18967 |
| 23 |
17660 |
17702.14 |
0.24% |
1.16853 |
1.184097 |
| 24 |
- |
20869.59 |
- |
- |
1.17893 |
| 25 |
- |
24503.47 |
- |
- |
1.174123 |
| 26 |
- |
28224.73 |
- |
- |
1.151866 |
| 27 |
- |
31390.92 |
- |
- |
1.112178 |
| 28 |
- |
34800.89 |
- |
- |
1.108629 |
| 29 |
- |
37472.46 |
- |
- |
1.076767 |
| 30 |
- |
40467.4 |
- |
- |
1.079924 |
| 31 |
- |
42952.6 |
- |
- |
1.061412 |
| 32 |
- |
44982.47 |
- |
- |
1.047258 |
| 33 |
- |
47993.6 |
- |
- |
1.06694 |
| 34 |
- |
52150.91 |
- |
- |
1.086622 |
| 35 |
- |
54307.97 |
- |
- |
1.041362 |
| 36 |
- |
55948.02 |
- |
- |
1.030199 |
| 37 |
- |
57620.74 |
- |
- |
1.029898 |
| 38 |
- |
59162.79 |
- |
- |
1.026762 |
| 39 |
- |
60591.3 |
- |
- |
1.024145 |
| 40 |
- |
60910.65 |
- |
- |
1.005271 |