Table 7: Predictive analyses with regard to goal scoring.

Author(s) Date Sample Data Collection Key Findings
Pollard and Reep 1997 22 matches World Cup 1986 Video analysis Calculation of “yield” (probability of a goal being scored, minus the probability of one being concede); starting zone of ball possession, open/set play and playing strategy as factors for the yield calculation; open play higher yield as set play; the closer it gets to the opponent goal the higher the yield
Carmichael and Thomas 2005 380 matches in fist division England 1997-1998 Secondary data Attacking play seems more important for home team and defensive play for away teams; shots on goal, tackles, free kicks and cards given are important factors
Kapidžić, Bećirović and Imamović 2009 31 matches European Championship 2008 Secondary data Shots within penalty area are the only significant single predictor (p=0.003),; shots on goal, shots off goal, shots blocked, pass completion, long, middle and short passes and completion explained 36% of the variance
Tenga, Holme, Ronglan and Bahr 2010 163 matches in first division Norway 2004 Video analysis More goals during counter attacks; counter attacks better than elaborate attacks; attacks starting in the last third better as first third; long possession is better than short possession
Tenga, Ronglan and Bahr 2010 163 matches in first division Norway 2004 Video analysis Counter attacks better than elaborate attacks; scoring
opportunities and score box possessions (shooting opportunities) can be used as a proxy for goals scored under certain circumstances
Wright, Atkins, Polman, Jones and Sargeson 2011 167 goals in first division England 2010-2011 Video analysis Three factors are significant predictors of goal success (p<0.05),: position of attempt, goal keepers’ position and type of shoot
Grund 2012 76 matches in first division England 2006-2008; 283,259 passes to create network Secondary data A clear network intensity effect is found. Increases in the passing rate lead to increased team performance. a clear network centralization effect is present; Increases in the centralization of team play lead to decreased performance